I recently read *The Merciless Future of a Japan with a Halved Population* (authored by Goshi Katagiri, supervised by Masashi Kawai, with writing assistance from Kenji Tanaka; published by Business-sha) with great interest.
As the title suggests, the book forecasts the future of a Japan grappling with a shrinking population and outlines the strategies the nation should adopt moving forward.
To summarize briefly, it predicts that by around 2070, Japan’s population will fall to 59 million, with an annual birth count of just 47,000. The book is premised on the idea that, among the world’s major economies, Japan is the fastest to “age and shrink.”
The authors argue that in a nation where the population is plummeting—dropping precipitously—policies such as immigration or digital transformation (DX) serve only as stopgaps, ultimately proving futile. They contend that the notion of “balanced national development” is nothing more than a pipe dream, and that we must abandon such irresponsible thinking. It is, indeed, a “merciless” outlook.
Given this, the book proposes that Japan’s path forward should be to “shrink strategically.” It suggests that we must discard the fantasy of perpetual expansion, re-evaluate our excessive reliance on convenience, and aim for a “high-quality contraction.”
While I do not necessarily endorse every argument in the book, I find myself largely in agreement. I personally anticipate that Japan’s population will eventually stabilize at around 45 million; therefore, the projection of 59 million people and 47,000 births by 2070 seems quite plausible.
I also agree with the call to reconsider our excessive convenience and strive for a “high-quality contraction.” Japan is known for its deeply ingrained culture of *omotenashi* (hospitality) and a strong spirit of service—often resulting in an overabundance of services. Perhaps by paring back these excessive offerings to only what is truly essential, we could manage a contraction while still maintaining a high quality of life. For instance, there are five or six convenience stores in the immediate vicinity of my own home. While certainly convenient, it is arguably excessive. Even if the number of convenience stores in the area—currently five or six—were reduced to two or three, or perhaps even just one, my standard of living would not decline. It might be wise to begin, little by little, to pursue a “high-quality downsizing.” (Kei Kitajima)

※Translating Japanese articles into English with AI