Series “Visiting the Village” 56 — Summary 18: Learning the Art of Foresight from Metaphors Before Our Eyes

In Japan, which has entered a society of population decline, regional revitalization is no easy task. It seems there is a dilemma between individual optimization and overall optimization, based on the premise of excessive efficiency and optimization, a phenomenon unique to modern society. (Kei Kitajima)
In Japan, which has entered a society of population decline, considering the future of a region is, in effect, also considering the future of Japan as a whole. There is no doubt that thinking about the future is an important endeavor toward a sustainable society. That is true, but we modern people have a strange habit that sometimes clouds our perception of reality. That habit is a sense of omnipotence. We tend to think that if we have enough will and ability, we can control everything as we please. This tendency is particularly strong among Japanese people who view modern Japanese society as a model of success.
On the other hand, looking back at its long history, it can be said that Japanese society has developed largely by chance. Of course, in every era, people’s will and abilities played a role to a greater or lesser extent, but development hasn’t been entirely controlled by their will.
People in the Heian period probably never dreamed of a society like the Sengoku period, and it’s highly unlikely that people in the Sengoku period foresaw a society like the present day.
Japan developed rapidly after the modern era, but this was likely because it had a clear goal. It was the clear and easily understood goal of catching up with the developed Western countries that allowed it to move forward in a straight line. As evidence of this, once Japan caught up with the West, it immediately lost its goal and has been drifting aimlessly, letting things take their course.
In any case, people have desperately tried to survive within the confines of circumstances. Isn’t the reality of history that regions were gradually formed and developed through these efforts? Considering this, it seems likely that future Japanese society will also ultimately change shape through the process of fate.
If I say something like this, I expect to be met with criticism from all sides, with people saying, “Such irresponsible thinking is unacceptable!” But such criticism is precisely a product of the modern person’s sense of omnipotence.
If everything could be controlled by will and ability, why hasn’t the declining birthrate problem been solved? For the past few decades, various measures have been taken, but none have been successful, and the birthrate has fallen to 1.2. If the declining birthrate problem were solved, most of the problems facing Japanese society would be solved, and there would be no need to seriously discuss issues like immigration, but that’s not the case.
Regarding the decline of local communities, if one or two sustainable industries could be established in those communities, it would be almost entirely solved, but that has not been possible, and we are struggling.
The prevailing view is that the declining birthrate progresses when “economic development” and “improvement of women’s social status” are combined.
The difficulty in establishing industries in local communities stems from their noticeable inefficiencies compared to urban areas. Therefore, even if a business is started in a local area, once it becomes established, that company relocates to an urban area.
What becomes clear here is the reality that individual optimization does not necessarily lead to overall optimization. In the modern context, individual optimization and overall optimization can even be said to be contradictory.
While the improvement of women’s social status and the pursuit of even greater heights through successful entrepreneurship are welcome developments, from the perspective of solving Japan’s overall challenges of curbing the declining birthrate and revitalizing local communities, it’s hard not to smile wryly.
Why does this happen?
“Optimization Illusion: Why Efficiency Doesn’t Make People Happy” (by Coco Klum, Shinchosha) is a book that casts a major question mark on the system of efficiency and optimization that many modern people base their values on. In other words, it details the paradox of efficiency and optimization. In short, it explains the reality that even seemingly correct and reasonable ideas can lead to unacceptable results when pursued to their fullest extent.
Systems that are excessively efficient and optimized will eventually collapse. In the past, further efficiency and optimization were used to avoid collapse. However, the more it is used, the more excessive it becomes, narrowing people’s freedom and amplifying feelings of suffocation, ultimately leading to its limits. Usually, the friction gradually spreads, leading to a sudden collapse.
The book points out that optimization cannot be replaced by further optimization or by rebelling against optimization. It urges us to abandon the language of efficiency and instead develop the ability to foresee the future from the metaphors before us.
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