According to “The Inconvenient Truth of the AI ​​Bubble” (by Kurosaka Tatsuya, published by Nikkei BP), we are currently seeing the typical signs of a bubble: “enthusiasm without profits.”
The term “AI bubble” has been heard here and there since around last year, but is it really a bubble? I asked AI, and he replied, “There’s still heated debate among experts.”
There are concerns that the actual profits companies are earning aren’t keeping up with the massive investments they’re making in AI. This is also pointed out in the book. Meanwhile, those who are opposed to the bubble argue that, unlike past IT bubbles, AI is already generating profits and results through improved business efficiency and program development.
Personally, I believe we’re in the midst of an AI bubble. Sooner or later, the bubble will burst, but I believe its collapse will actually lead to more down-to-earth AI utilization.
The same was true of the IT bubble that occurred around 2000. There was a proliferation of dot-com companies whose activities were unclear, but after the bubble burst, only true IT companies remained in the market, and the use of IT exploded.
Currently, we see a number of companies calling themselves AI companies, but frankly, no one knows what they are doing. Just like the IT bubble, after the AI ​​bubble bursts, only true AI companies will remain, and the use of AI will likely advance rapidly from there.
So when will the AI ​​bubble burst? According to AI experts, the prevailing view is that a major turning point will occur sometime in 2026. They believe that technological limitations, such as the depletion of electricity, water resources, and training data, will lead to the bubble’s collapse. Meanwhile, some say that massive investment in AI will continue until 2027. It is believed that edge AI will become a new growth engine, prolonging the life of the bubble.
AI will continue to evolve and spread. It is likely that we will experience several bubbles along the way. (Kei Kitajima)

※Translating Japanese articles into English with AI