David Petz, a professor at King’s College London (KCL) and renowned tactician, has published a paper stating that there is an 87% chance of a civil war breaking out in Europe within the next five years, generating some buzz. This is apparently a calculation based on the cumulative probability of a combination of risk factors. Elon Musk has also made a similar statement, but experts have ridiculed it as being off the mark.

According to a September 5th article in the Sankei Shimbun, Professor Petz points out that the possibility of civil war increases if a sense of “decline” spreads among the former majority, and lists the UK and France as high-risk countries. The key point is the “spreading sense of decline.” If this happens, Japan cannot remain immune to this. Unfortunately, this sense of decline is certainly spreading in Japan as well. Evidence of this is the increasing frequency of demonstrations, often featuring extreme xenophobic and other sentiments, although still small and moderate compared to Europe and the US. If this escalates, it could accelerate division and even lead to civil war. While civil war may be an exaggeration, the possibility of anarchy is increasing. In fact, on social media, there has been an increase in the blatant spreading of deliberately false information in order to get one’s point across, creating an atmosphere akin to anarchy. Setting civil war aside, judging by social media, it’s clear that unrest could break out somewhere in a developed country at any time.
The underlying factor is the rapid increase in immigration. Rather than immigration being the problem, it’s more accurate to say that the problem is an excessive influx beyond the limits.
When anything exceeds its limits, an uneasy atmosphere is created. In this sense, too, we are reminded of the importance of moderation. At first glance, moderation may seem half-hearted and lukewarm, but I believe it is a much wiser stance than “excess” or “extreme.” The problem of our time is that we go to excess or extremes in everything, upsetting the balance. Perhaps what is required of the next generation of leaders is to spread and establish the value of moderation. (Kitajima Kei)

※Translating Japanese articles into English with AI