The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has significantly lowered its world economic growth forecast for this year and next. This year’s world economic growth rate is 2.8%. As of January, it was 3.3%.
As for Japan, the growth rate forecast for this year was lowered from 1.1% to 0.6%.
The background to this is, needless to say, the tariff measures introduced by President Trump. The IMF predicts the slowest growth since the COVID-19 pandemic, citing increasing uncertainty. Furthermore, if the global trade war intensifies in the future, the outlook will worsen further.
In fact, China, where the conflict with the United States is becoming more acute, is certain to see trade stagnation, and its growth rate in 2025 is likely to be a low 4.0%.
It is said that when the wind blows, the barrel maker profits, but who will benefit from the United States’ tariff measures and trade war? What benefits will there be for the United States, the leader? From the perspective of economic growth, it seems that there is almost no gain for the United States.
If there is one, it would be the correction of the economic disparity that exists among the American people. Tariffs and trade wars will not improve the lives of people who are dissatisfied with the current situation and feel oppressed, but they may be able to offer some relief in the hope that disparities will be corrected. If this helps to prevent deaths of despair, which is a problem in the United States, that will be a credit to President Trump.

In fact, there are few cases of terrorism or riots caused by poverty. It is said that inequality is the breeding ground for terrorism and riots. Humans are strange creatures. If everyone is uniformly poor, they will help each other to survive. On the other hand, when there is inequality, people become divided, become dissatisfied and show rebellious attitudes toward society and others. The reason why there are relatively few terrorism and riots in Japan is probably because economic inequality is not as serious as in other countries.

In any case, I cannot see any rational purpose for the United States to launch tariffs and trade wars other than correcting inequality. (Kei Kitajima)

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