According to predictions from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others, Japan’s GDP in 2050 will be 6.8 trillion dollars (1,020 trillion yen at 150 yen to the dollar), and 7.5 trillion dollars (1,125 trillion yen at the same rate) in 2075. The population in 2050 will be about 95 million, and about 65 million in 2075. GDP per capita in 2050 will be about 10.7 million yen, and 17.3 million yen in 2075.
According to the per capita GDP rankings published by the IMF in 2024, Luxembourg is in first place with about 21.16 million yen, Switzerland in second place with about 16.76 million yen, and Ireland in third place with about 16.09 million yen. Small European countries stand out, but Japan’s 10.7 million yen and 17.3 million yen are not far behind.
Of course, the economic environment will be different 25 or 50 years from now, and there are geopolitical differences between Europe and Asia, so comparisons cannot be made lightly, but the state of small European countries can give us a hint as to what Japan should aim for.

That is a quality economy. Even if we pursue a quantitative economy targeting the masses as in the past, as the population decreases, we will not be able to compete with populous countries such as China, India, and the United States. In a sense, a declining population means that we will be able to be more maneuverable and flexible. The environment for utilizing ICT will rather become better. Isn’t it the path Japan should take to thoroughly pursue the advantages of being small and create a high-quality economic environment specialized in our own areas of expertise?

At first, I was concerned that by going down this path, Japan would not be able to maintain the depth of its services and would become difficult to live in, but now I am optimistic. This is because there has been unexpected progress in AI, and AGI and other things are already within reach. In light of this situation, it is not a dream to achieve a high-quality economy unique to small countries while maintaining the depth of services even with a declining population.

First of all, we should go down this path. Immigration is a topic to be considered in the next phase. (Kei Kitajima)

※Translating Japanese articles into English with AI