The problem of declining birthrates is becoming more serious. In Tokyo, the birthrate is 0.99, the first time it has fallen below 1 in the country. In response to this, Governor Koike Yuriko and Senator Renho, who are running for the Tokyo gubernatorial election, have announced a campaign pledge with measures to combat the declining birthrate as the pillar of their campaign.

On the other hand, if we look closely at global society, we can see that similar problems to those in Japan are becoming apparent. For example, in the UK, many women of Generation Z, born after 2000, have indicated that they do not intend to have children in the future. Other Western countries are not far behind. In other words, many countries, especially developed countries, will follow the same path as Japan sooner or later.

It is said that Japan began to seriously address the declining birthrate around 1990. At the time, the birthrate was 1.57, and the “1.57 shock” was widely hailed. More than 30 years have passed since then, but the birthrate has fallen to 1.2.

If we take a realistic approach, it means that measures to combat the declining birthrate are ineffective. Some criticize that the government’s measures are misguided, but over the past few decades, the government and local governments have taken all possible measures from various angles. If all of these measures were misguided, isn’t it reasonable to conclude that there are no effective measures to combat the declining birthrate?

It is said that countries with a developed economy and improved status of women are more likely to experience a declining birthrate. This is a universal theory.

I believe that rather than pouring resources into measures to combat the declining birthrate, it would be more beneficial for Japan’s future to focus on building a country and society that can function even with a declining population. According to a low-end estimate by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan’s population will be around 38 million in 2100. Shouldn’t we start building a country and society on the premise of a population of 38 million now?

The first step is to move away from and change the focus of measures to combat the declining birthrate. Isn’t it time to adopt the concept that building a country and society that is easy to live in and commensurate with the declining population will lead to a stable birthrate in the long run? (Kitajima Kei)

※Translating Japanese articles into English with AI