Can the labor shortage be changed? Hideo Kumano (Chief Economist, Dai-ichi Life Economic Research Institute)|電経新聞

Can the labor shortage be changed? Hideo Kumano (Chief Economist, Dai-ichi Life Economic Research Institute)

When I listen to commentators who say that the future of Japan’s economy is very bright, I sometimes think, ”Wait a minute”.
This is because I wonder if the reality of the growing labor shortage in small and medium-sized enterprises will improve in the future.
A society with a declining population is progressing with a rapid decline in the young population. Many companies now have a workforce in their 50s, and there is a growing need for generational change.
There are many cases of people in their 60s and 70s working at small and medium-sized enterprises, and most business owners have latent concerns about how many years the current system will last.
Even if you post a job at Hello Work, there are many cases where you are not satisfied with the applicants. Even if you offer good conditions, you only get people over 50, and there are no people in their 30s. If this situation continues for another 10 years, senior employees at manufacturing sites will not be able to maintain their physical strength.
Most small and medium-sized businesses continue to maintain the status quo for years, knowing that they are putting off problems.

The solution is to review the work flow and systemize/mechanize it to save labor. Depending on the job, there is also the option of outsourcing. The topic of discussion is the use of AI such as ChatGPT.
Many jobs are expected to disappear in the near future due to the use of AI. If it becomes possible to save on labor through the use of AI, it will surely be good news for small and medium-sized businesses. However, although AI is a hot topic, there is a problem in that there is no detailed guidance on how to apply it in practice. In my area, AI is used to transcribe voice recordings into text. Some people use AI to create lecture materials. However, from the perspective of small and medium-sized enterprises, it is unclear how it can be applied and how it can save labor.

There’s a kind of wall here. Without the intervention of human resources who connect the field and technology, AI will not be widely adopted at a practical level.
It is essential to train small and medium-sized business consultants who specialize in AI, and to have a system in place for small and medium-sized business organizations to mediate such experts.
If you think about it, it would be a good idea to involve small and medium-sized business consultants in reviewing the overall work flow to deal with the labor shortage. If you look at the meal delivery systems of major restaurant chains, you will find that they are full of wisdom for saving labor. I think it can be fully applied to privately run restaurant services. There is a lot of room for learning knowledge and skills to help address the labor shortage.
Another issue is awareness.

Redundant personnel are hidden within large companies. Unable to adjust employment, the status quo remains unchanged. A strong mismatch is occurring throughout the company. In large companies, if a person is unable to become an officer in his or her mid-50s, there is a system in place where the employee retires from the position of general manager, section manager, etc. As a result, there are many cases where employees lose their sense of purpose and become redundant because they are no longer able to produce results as before.
For such people, it may be better to first experience temporary secondment and then transfer at some point. You can live a better life by relearning and regaining motivation at your next job.