According to the Economic Watcher Survey released by the Cabinet Office, the current situation index for March was 49.8, down 1.5 points from the previous month. It appears that holding back on purchases due to rising prices was a factor pushing down prices.
The Nikkei Stock Average hits a new high. Major companies are achieving record profits and have a strong appetite for capital investment. During the spring labor union, workers were excited about high wage increases. At first glance, the economy does not seem to be collapsing. GDP in 2023 will probably show positive growth.
On the other hand, as prices have risen more rapidly than wage increases, most people are unsure whether the economy is doing well or not.
There have been many times in the past where people have faced the dilemma of not being able to feel the economic expansion even though the economy continues to expand. Rather, the ”lost 30 years” were a repetition of that process.
At times like these, so-called economic experts have wisely suggested that if we just endure a little longer, things will get back on track. In fact, some experts say that the Japanese economy will recover after a while as wage increases will outpace price increases and Japan will break free from deflation.
Is it true. Will the Japanese economy really be on a growth path at this rate? I hope so, but I just don’t know.
Is it possible for the economy to recover through fiscal and financial measures alone? If products and services do not sell and the real economy does not flourish, it cannot be called growth in the essential sense.
In that sense, it is a good sign that companies have a strong appetite for capital investment, but the question going forward is how they will create products and services that sell. For example, products and services that make full use of AI will likely become hot sellers.
As the real economy flourishes, industrial relations become more effective, and money becomes more widely available. The financial situation of many people, including small and medium-sized enterprises, will also improve. If this happens, consumer confidence will return and economic expansion will emerge where the people can feel that the economy is doing well.(Kei Kitajima)