The current CES does not have the semblance of a consumer electronics trade show, but has transformed into an innovation trade show. This year’s CES brought together innovations from around the world, centered on the United States, China, and South Korea. Many technologies, products, and solutions related to generative AI, which is currently a hot topic, were also exhibited.
Meanwhile, if you look at cities in the United States, you can see self-driving cars driving on city streets, ChatGPT installed on people’s smartphones, and used in various ways.
The traditional pattern has been for technologies, products, and solutions introduced at CES to be used in the marketplace several years later, but that pattern appears to be changing. The period between the birth of an innovation and its dissemination is becoming infinitely shorter. The innovations that appear at CES are already on the market; rather, the structure is such that CES is rushing to pursue technologies, products, and solutions that are showing signs of movement in the market. In fact, generative AI was not present at last year’s CES. Generative AI appeared like a comet last spring and has rapidly increased its presence. Following this trend, generative AI was widely promoted at this year’s CES.

Perhaps this year too, an innovation that has never existed before will suddenly appear somewhere in the world and take the market by storm in the blink of an eye. And I think next year’s CES will catch up on such innovations. In short, CES has become a lagging innovation trade show.
Due to these circumstances, I felt a kind of innovation fatigue at this year’s CES. It was one of the world’s largest events with around 140,000 people in attendance, so it was lively, but I got the impression that it had a rather lazy atmosphere. CES may also be at a turning point. New ideas may be needed to stay ahead of the market and continue to play the role of presenting innovations that open up the future.

As I walked through the CES venue, I thought about innovation fatigue. Will the United States, China, or South Korea be able to continue to promote innovation? Although it is not as serious as Japan, the United States, China, South Korea, and even more countries around the world are entering the age of aging society.
Digital technology is at the core of innovation, but it is always young people and young societies that utilize digital technology to make groundbreaking breakthroughs. The fact that Japan’s digital technology competitiveness has not improved is not unrelated to the fact that it is an aging society. No matter how many excellent digital innovations Japan’s young people create, if there are no advanced users who can make full use of them, they will not become popular and will fail. Advanced users are usually young people.
The elderly have always had low productivity and sluggish consumption. With some exceptions, this is a universal trend. Countries around the world will become aging societies. In other words, there will be fewer young people. As a result, digital innovation will decline, and social development that relies on digital innovation will become more difficult than expected.
If CES is the first to highlight this trend in the form of innovation fatigue, it can be said to be a unique trade show that embodies the near future.

If there is one key technology aspect, it would be Age Tech, which was also seen at this year’s CES. As the number of elderly people increases, innovations that are convenient and easy to use for the elderly are likely to lead to business. As the population ages around the world, there is no doubt that AgeTech will become a hot stock.
　
Another thing that struck me as I walked through the CES venue was the demographic of the attendees. This has been especially noticeable in recent years, but many of the visitors are of Asian descent. In terms of skin feel, the ratio is about 6 to 4, with the majority being Asian. The racial composition of the United States is changing, with whites becoming a minority. Similar trends are occurring in Europe, although not to the same extent as in the United States. It is said that this will bring major changes to society. This change has both positive and negative aspects. It will also have an impact on the way innovation occurs. In particular, there is a possibility that the vector of innovation will be different from that of the past.
I think there are various opinions, but modern times were born and developed from white society. It can be said that white people have led the creation of a society based on technological innovation, including the industrial revolution. What happens when white people become a minority in Europe and America, which were originally white societies?
There is currently an atmosphere of deliberately avoiding such topics, saying that “such ideas are racist and outdated” and “contrary to political correctness,” but it is impossible for society to remain in a state of doldrums even as the racial composition of society changes. It’s a story that will eventually become impossible to ignore.
For example, in the United States, concepts such as “DEI (diversity, equity, and inclusion)” and “ESG (environment, society, and governance)” are starting to turn yellow. These movements are no coincidence.
When you think about it, the kind of innovation fatigue that was felt at CES may have been a phenomenon unique to the transition period, when the vector of innovation shifts.
The world is in a period of transition in many ways. If the axes of politics, economy, and society change, the axes of technology and innovation will also change. 　　
(Kei Kitajima)