Even if a product or service temporarily attracts a great deal of attention and attracts attention in various media, only a small portion of it becomes a hit. Many things disappear from the discussion within a few months. Gartner, an American consulting firm, has named the process from the emergence of a new technology to the excitement, disappointment, progress to the next stage, and finally to popularization as the “Hype Cycle.” Of course, not all follow this cycle to popularization, and many disappear in a ‘pit’ of disillusionment. The point is that the excitement of anticipation is often followed by the disillusionment.
Looking at social media as a whole, it can be said that it has already entered a stable diffusion stage. TikTok is one of the hottest stocks in recent times. Although it has become an international political issue, it is said that the number of users has already exceeded 15 million in Japan as of 2021. You can also post videos on Instagram, which is popular among young people, and YouTube added a short video posting function in September 2020. It seems safe to assume that short videos, which took the lead in China, have already entered a period of stability.
There is no doubt that tools with new concepts will continue to appear one after another, but one thing I would like to keep in mind is that it is not uncommon for the media to revive the losers. A typical example is a digital camera. Electronic still cameras with analog signals were first commercialized before digital ones. Digital cameras are technically older, but their commercialization was delayed due to technical problems. And although electronic still cameras have been used in news reports and conference presentations, they did not sell well as consumer goods. At that time, consumers chose video cameras, and electronic still cameras were half-baked, unable to capture video or sound. However, more than 10 years later, the digital camera became a hit product. During that time, the processing power of personal computers increased, and photo retouching software also appeared, so the digital camera gained a position as an image input device for personal computers. Also, with the advent of the web, digital cameras were convenient for taking pictures for the site. As the media environment changed, so did the position of the camera.
When I think about the future of the “losers’ revival,” I personally pay attention to voice SNS. Clubhouse is probably the most talked about in this area. As soon as it appeared in April 2020, it quickly attracted attention. After about half a year, it was treated as “Owakon”. It is truly the “disillusionment period” of the hype cycle. However, if you look at the history of media, you can realize the strength of attachment to sound. Radio broadcasting is still alive and well, and rather the services are diversifying. Voice SNS should be able to fully recover if the environment changes. I feel that speech synthesis by AI holds the key.