If nothing is done, in 100 years, Japan’s population may be concentrated only in major metropolitan areas such as the capital, Tokai, and Kansai, and most other regions may disappear. Japan, at a crossroads, has two paths to choose from: a “polar society” and a “multi-axis society.” (Kei Kitajima)

Searching “Japan’s future in 100 years” on the internet yields various views and charts. Many of these predict a drastic population decline, with population concentration only in major metropolitan areas such as the capital, Tokai, and Kansai, and most other regions disappearing. While Sapporo, Fukuoka, and Sendai will still have a reasonable population, other regions are expected to become uninhabitable.

Even asking AI about “Japan’s future in 100 years” yields similar results.

The author predicts that after 2100, Japan’s population could fall to between 30 and 50 million, with many local governments disappearing and inhabited areas becoming extremely concentrated in specific metropolitan areas such as the capital and Kansai—a “polar society.”
In other words, most of Japan’s population will be concentrated in 20-30% of its land area, while the remaining 70-80% will revert to nature, or become barren land or ruins.
While there is room for debate regarding the probability of such predictions, population forecasts are generally said to have less error than other indicators. Therefore, they cannot be dismissed as mere sensationalism. Ultimately, we must seriously consider these predictions and plan our future based on the premise that Japan will shrink to its absolute minimum in 100 years if we do nothing.
I believe there are two paths for Japan in 100 years.
One is to let the current trend take us towards a polar society, and pursue development and human happiness unique to such a society. Another path is not to adopt the extreme-centered society, but rather to pursue a multi-axis society that aims for development and human happiness by effectively utilizing the land as evenly as possible.

Extreme-centered society vs. multi-axis society. Both paths have their difficulties and advantages and disadvantages, but the extreme-centered society might be easier because you can just go with the flow. The concentration of people locally would likely increase the efficiency of businesses, especially service industries. Maintaining and developing social infrastructure would also be relatively easier due to the smaller scale. However, there are concerns about an extremely crowded society, leading to the homogenization of lifestyles and a decline in living standards. The risk of the country collapsing rapidly in the event of a major disaster cannot be ruled out. Currently, the over-concentration in Tokyo is a problem, and the reason it’s a problem is that if this excessive concentration continues, the problems mentioned above will become apparent.

Generally speaking, most of what we call culture—whether it’s the delicious food ingredients considered to be Japanese cuisine, representative Japanese crafts, or history—is produced in regions. If Japan becomes an extreme-centered society and regions disappear, Japan’s unique culture will also vanish.

As Yukio Mishima pointed out, “an inorganic, empty, neutral, neutral, and shrewd economic superpower will remain in a corner of the Far East.” A country that becomes a polar society cannot possibly remain an economic superpower, so at that point, it will likely become something like Luxembourg, Singapore, or Taiwan.

From this perspective, a multi-axis society offers far greater prospects, but the biggest hurdle is having to change the current trends. To prevent regional hollowing out and create a reasonably convenient and livable environment requires a corresponding amount of people, goods, and money. Currently, regions are struggling because people, goods, and money are flowing out to urban areas; therefore, curbing this flow is the first milestone toward a multi-axis society.

To put it bluntly, regions that can curb the outflow of people, goods, and money will survive as players in a multi-axis society. Those that cannot will inevitably disappear. If we cannot stop the outflow of people, goods, and money to urban areas, we will inevitably transition to an extreme society.

Considering the fact that the population will be less than half of what it is now, the dynamics of selection and prioritization will inevitably come into play.

※Translating Japanese articles into English with AI