After the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s tariffs were illegal, President Trump responded by taking alternative measures. He has imposed an additional 10% tariff on countries around the world and has even indicated his intention to raise the tariff rate to 15%.
The negotiations are so turbulent that it’s hard to know what to do, exacerbating the confusion. Ultimately, is this an economic gain or loss for Japan? It may be a short-term gain, but the widespread uncertainty will be a major long-term loss. It’s not a gain for Japan, or any other country. It’s certainly a loss for the United States.
I’ve heard some say that the current situation closely resembles the eve of World War II. However, since very few of us lived through that time, it’s hard to say for sure. It’s probably just an impression. Incidentally, President Trump was born in June 1946 and is part of the postwar generation. In other words, he’s the first generation to experience war.
The situation we find ourselves in now—or the situation we’re currently facing—is unique. That’s the way I’ve come to think. If that’s the case, then history isn’t necessarily helpful. In this context, I imagine the next world to be one of “neo-isolation.” Perhaps after 2050, countries will gradually limit their interactions to the bare minimum and become more inward-looking. Ultimately, the world will be unable to reach compromise and will only invite conflict. If this is the case, I feel that an increasing number of countries will decide that it would be better to seek a path of self-sufficiency. We are already seeing signs of this in the United States. Developments in IT, energy, military technology, and more will enable countries to become self-sufficient and encourage an inward-looking attitude.
If such a world were to emerge, what would happen to Japan? Personally, I believe that Japan could do reasonably well as long as it gets its primary industries on track and does not close itself off to friendly countries that share its values. (Kei Kitajima)

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