At the Davos World Economic Forum in January, Canadian Prime Minister Carney stated, “The world order has collapsed, and the old order no longer applies,” and called for unity among mid-power countries, including Canada. The world order is certainly undergoing a major transformation. It’s easy to imagine that the old order will no longer apply.
But which mid-power countries are mentioned here? The permanent members of the UN Security Council—the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, and France—are generally referred to as great powers, while Canada, Australia, Argentina, South Korea, and Brazil are considered mid-power countries. While Japan and Germany are not permanent members, they are sometimes considered great powers given their economic and military might. However, Carney’s division of power between great and mid-power countries is unlikely to be conventional. He likely envisions the United States, China, Russia, and India as major powers, and all other countries as mid-power countries.
The actions of these four great powers will likely have a major influence on the future shape of the world order. Other countries are concerned about being manipulated by the selfish bargaining of major powers. My interpretation is that they are calling for unity among middle-power countries in order to drive a wedge into this situation and ensure that all countries maintain their autonomy.
The current international community has exposed a brutal reality that is so untenable that ideals and hypocrisy have no place. There is no room for beautiful stories. If the violent reality escalates further, it is no exaggeration to say that it could develop into World War III. To avoid this situation, we need to soften the brutal reality.
Ideals, hypocrisy, and beautiful stories are of no use now. The only way to soften the harsh reality is to adopt a realistic perspective. One thing is for middle-power countries to unite and decide which of the four major powers to support. The key is to create a system in which a country will not be able to survive as a major power, economically or militarily, without the support of united middle-power countries. (Kei Kitajima)