“The United States becomes inward-looking to the point of stirring up anxiety in other countries, but it is like a distant giant that cannot be ignored. It is a partner that everyone needs, but at the same time a rival that is indifferent to others. It will be a very difficult task for the Japanese government to maintain good relations with this country again.”
The above is a passage from “World Hegemony 2030 in Geopolitics” (Peter Zeihan, Toyo Keizai). The book was published in February 2016. It was probably written in 2015, 10 years ago.
The book repeatedly points out America’s tendency to isolate itself, and emphasizes that it will become an increasingly difficult country to deal with in the future. I read the book about 10 years ago, so I predicted the current situation to some extent.
Why is America becoming inward-looking and isolationist? One thing I can say is that the United States, as a superpower, has all the resources, such as food, technology, military power, and human resources, so there is a belief that it can somehow keep the eco-cycle going without cooperating with other countries. Furthermore, geopolitically speaking, America is in a difficult position to invade, and it is said that no matter how superior the tactics or weapons, it cannot be conquered. In other words, Americans do not have to worry about war.
For these reasons, a surprisingly large number of Americans believe that they can live a richer life in isolation. President Trump is likely one of them.
Incidentally, the book lists Japan and Germany as the countries that will act most aggressively through 2030. The only way resource-poor countries can maintain their prosperity is to strengthen ties with other countries and increase trade. It is a problem when resource-rich countries become inward-looking. In particular, when a superpower like America becomes inward-looking, it can become a matter of life and death.
In order to maintain its relationship with America, Japan will likely have no choice but to act aggressively at least until around 2030. (Kei Kitajima)

※Translating Japanese articles into English with AI