NOTE118|電経新聞

NOTE118

According to a forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Japan will fall to 12th place in the world in the GDP rankings in 2075, 50 years from now.
1st place is China, 2nd place is India, and 3rd place is the United States, which is somewhat understandable, but 4th place is Indonesia, 5th place is Nigeria, 6th place is Pakistan, 7th place is Egypt, and 8th place is Brazil. The situation is quite different from now. By the way, 9th place is Germany, 10th place is the UK, and 11th place is Mexico.
Since this is a story from 50 years from now, it is unclear how reliable it is, but there is no doubt that the international situation will change significantly in these 50 years.
According to the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan’s population in 2075 will be about 65 million, nearly half of the current population. The GDP at that time will be 7.5 trillion dollars, which is 1,125 trillion yen at 150 yen to the dollar. It is just under twice the current situation. If the economy were to double with half the population, the GDP per capita would be about 17.3 million yen. It depends on the price level in 2075, so it’s difficult to make a hasty judgment, but going by current standards, it’s a pretty big number and seems like a wealthy country.

By the way, Japan’s GDP in 2050 is expected to be about 6.8 trillion dollars (1,020 trillion yen). The population is about 95 million. The GDP per capita is about 10.7 million yen. This is 25 years from now, but to be honest, I don’t know if it will really happen, or if it’s a good thing or a bad thing.

However, what is certain is that Japan’s international position and the nature of Japanese society will change considerably. The Japanese outlook on life will also change significantly.

That being said, it probably doesn’t really matter to me. If I were alive, I would be in my 80s in the 2050s and 104 in 2075. The remains have already been cremated, and I personally believe that we will never be able to see the landscape of Japan at that time. (Kei Kitajima)

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